Economic Calendar 2026
Key macro events that move Indian markets. RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, India CPI and GDP releases, US Fed (FOMC) meetings, and US CPI dates for the full year 2026.
January 2026
US Consumer Price Index for December 2025. High print can delay Fed cuts.
India's retail inflation for December 2025. Key input for RBI policy.
Federal Reserve rate decision. Jan/Mar meetings are historically hold months.
First advance estimate of GDP for Oct-Dec 2025 quarter.
February 2026
India's annual Union Budget presented by Finance Minister. Already happened — full-year fiscal roadmap is known.
Bi-monthly monetary policy review. Repo rate decision announced on last day (typically Day 3).
January US inflation print. First reading of 2026 — sets Fed tone for H1.
January India CPI. RBI watches this closely for the February policy.
March 2026
February US CPI. Crucial ahead of March FOMC.
February India retail inflation. Monsoon/food base effects typically visible.
March FOMC — one of the more actionable meetings. Fed SEP (dot plot) released.
April 2026
April bi-monthly policy. Post-budget, pre-summer assessment of growth and inflation.
March US CPI. Full Q1 inflation picture for 2026.
March India CPI — FY25-26 year-end reading. Base effects from last year's high summer prices.
April/May FOMC. Markets watch for any pivot signals ahead of summer.
GDP estimate for January-March 2026 quarter and full-year FY26 advance estimate.
May 2026Current month
April US CPI. Warm-month energy and services inflation reading.
April India CPI. Summer vegetables and fuel typically push numbers up.
June 2026
June policy review — mid-year check. Monsoon forecast and Q1 GDP estimates guide the decision.
May US CPI. Pre-FOMC data. Markets are very sensitive to this print.
May India CPI. Monsoon onset impact on vegetable prices often visible.
June FOMC — dot plot update. One of the four quarterly SEP meetings.
July 2026
June US CPI. H1 2026 inflation summary for the Fed.
June India CPI. Kharif sowing updates alongside inflation.
July FOMC. Typically a hold meeting unless data is extreme.
August 2026
August policy — post-monsoon progress, kharif crop output assessment affects food inflation outlook.
July US CPI. Typically the peak summer energy reading.
July India CPI. Monsoon flooding or deficit shows in vegetable prices.
First quarter FY27 GDP. Sets the tone for full-year growth forecasts.
September 2026
August US CPI. Pre-September FOMC — most watched print of the quarter.
August India CPI. Post-monsoon assessment — festive season demand impact.
September FOMC — dot plot. Historically the most likely month for rate moves.
October 2026
October policy — post-kharif harvest, festive season demand, and early rabi sowing assessment.
September US CPI. Q3 close-out — full picture of H2 inflation direction.
September India CPI. Festive demand often pushes WPI and CPI higher.
October/November FOMC. Typically a hold unless September data was extreme.
Second quarter FY27 GDP. Monsoon and festive season impact on growth.
November 2026
October US CPI. Post-festive US demand and base effects.
October India CPI. Diwali month — gold, consumer goods demand peaks.
December 2026
December policy — year-end review. RBI sets tone for the coming financial year's first half.
November US CPI. Pre-December FOMC. Holiday spending season inflation.
November India CPI. Winter vegetables, rabi crop outlook, and demand-side factors.
December FOMC — final meeting of 2026 with dot plot. Sets tone for 2027.
Why These Events Matter for Indian Markets
RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
The RBI MPC meets 6 times a year and decides the repo rate — the rate at which banks borrow from RBI. A rate cut reduces borrowing costs, boosts credit growth, lifts stock valuations (especially rate-sensitive sectors: NBFCs, real estate, banking), and weakens the rupee. A rate hike does the opposite. Nifty Bank and Nifty Financial Services move the most on MPC days. Markets often price in the expected move weeks in advance, so the language in the policy statement matters as much as the rate decision itself.
India CPI Inflation
India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released by MoSPI around the 12th of each month. The RBI's target is 4% ± 2% (i.e., 2%–6% band). If CPI surprises to the upside, rate cut hopes diminish — Nifty dips, bond yields rise. If it surprises to the downside, rate cut bets build — markets rally. Food and vegetable prices are the biggest variable. Watch the core CPI (ex-food, fuel) for the structural signal the RBI cares about most.
India GDP
India releases GDP quarterly with a ~2-month lag. Strong GDP (above ~7%) confirms the growth story and supports premium valuations. Weak GDP raises questions about corporate earnings. The advance estimate (typically January) is more market-moving than the final revision. GDP data is particularly important for FPI inflows — foreign portfolio investors monitor India's growth trajectory vs other EMs when making allocation decisions.
US Federal Reserve (FOMC)
The US Fed meets 8 times a year. India is a high-beta EM — when the Fed raises rates, FPIs sell Indian equities and move money to safer US treasuries. This weakens the rupee and pressures Indian stocks. When the Fed cuts, FPIs return to EMs, the rupee strengthens, and Indian markets rally. The dollar index (DXY) and US 10-year treasury yield are the key FPI flow drivers. Watch the dot plot released in March, June, September, and December for the Fed's own multi-year rate projection.
US CPI
US inflation data directly drives Fed rate expectations, and Fed rate expectations drive global equity flows including India. A hot US CPI (above 3%) delays Fed cuts, strengthens the dollar, and typically triggers a risk-off selloff in Indian markets. A cool print accelerates rate cut bets, weakens the dollar, and is good for India. The correlation is not perfect — domestic factors matter — but on the day of US CPI release, Nifty often moves 0.5%–1% in response to the print.
RBI MPC Schedule 2026 — At a Glance
RBI MPC meets 6 times per year. Decision is announced on Day 3 (typically a Friday) of the 3-day deliberation. Current Repo Rate: check RBI website for the latest.