US Stock Returns Calculator — what ₹1 lakh becomes in US markets, in rupees

About the USD Returns Calculator

The question every Indian retail investor is now asking: 'Should I invest in the US market?' is really two questions — 'What return do I get in rupees?' and 'How does that compare to Nifty after taxes?' This calculator answers both.

The INR return from a US investment has two components: (1) USD returns (S&P 500 has delivered ~10-11% USD CAGR since 1990, NASDAQ 100 ~14%) and (2) currency movement. The rupee has depreciated against the dollar at ~3% per year historically. These two stack multiplicatively: a 10% USD return + 3% INR depreciation gives approximately 13.3% INR return — meaningfully above Nifty 50's ~12%. The edge is modest on paper but compounds significantly over 10+ years.

The honest counter-argument: Nifty's 12% is already in INR, is easier to access (SIP into a Nifty 50 index fund), has lower TCS/compliance friction, and doesn't require managing USD exposure. US investing makes the most sense for: (a) investors who already max out 80C/NPS and want additional alpha, (b) those with foreign income or education expenses denominated in USD, (c) investors who believe US tech will outperform Indian equities on a 10+ year view.

Tax reality check: India taxes US capital gains at 12.5% LTCG after 24 months (same as Indian equity). Dividends from US stocks carry a US withholding tax of 25% (DTAA reduced from 30%) plus Indian slab tax on the net. High-dividend US stocks (REITs, utilities) are tax-inefficient for Indian investors — stick to growth ETFs and individual stocks that pay minimal dividends.

Use this calculator to run 3 scenarios: pessimistic (7% USD, 2% INR dep), base (10% USD, 3% INR dep), optimistic (13% USD, 4% INR dep — as seen in 2021-2024). Compare each against your Nifty SIP projection. If the spread exceeds 2%, US investing earns its complexity. If not, the simple Nifty SIP wins on friction-adjusted returns.